Analysis

Plain-language write-ups built from public Canadian regulator data. Each one links to the code behind it and states its limits. A new post about every two weeks.

November 2026Why the decline curve runs low: wells that bounce back

About 35 to 50% of wells recover after the training window. A low month just before the forecast multiplies the typical miss by two to five, but does not explain all of it.

0%-20%-40%Alb oilSas oilSas gasBC gasmedian error · ■ no low month ■ low month
November 2026Gas has a season. Oil mostly doesn't.

Alberta and BC gas run 6 to 10% above trend in winter and below it through summer and early autumn. Oil barely moves with the calendar.

-10%+0%+10%JanAprJulOctvs 12-month trend, 2022-25 · ━ gas ━ oil
November 2026Most licensed wells aren't producing

Alberta's well file lists about 668,000 wells and about 143,000 reported production in the last year. Saskatchewan: 158,000 and 42,000.

Alberta 21% producingSask. 26%wells listed vs producing, last 12 months
November 2026Shut-ins and restarts: how many wells stop, and do they come back?

Of the wells producing in January 2022, 84% in Alberta, 82% in Saskatchewan and 73% in BC were still producing in September 2026; about one well in ten had a gap of three months or more.

80%100%still producing, Jan 2022 cohort
November 2026Are new wells getting better? First-six-month rates by year

Alberta gas wells that first produced in 2025 started 19% stronger than 2022 starters at the median; Saskatchewan oil wells were roughly unchanged.

100150median first-6-month rate, 2022 = 100
November 2026How concentrated is production? Licensee shares in Alberta and Saskatchewan

The five largest licensees hold 52% of Alberta's producing wells and 70% of Saskatchewan's; Saskatchewan's largest alone holds 27% of oil volume.

0%50%100%share of wells held by top licensees (1 to 50)
November 2026Gas-oil ratios: an "oil well" is not the same everywhere

Alberta crude-oil wells have a median gas-oil ratio of about 1,896 scf/bbl, Saskatchewan about 693, and Alberta bitumen wells about 352.

<100100-300300-1k1-3k3-10k>10kwell gas-oil ratio (scf/bbl), share of wells
November 2026What a naive load gets wrong: traps in Canadian well files

Default CSV loading drops leading zeros from codes, counts 13,735 extra Alberta well rows, and splits licence statuses into 16 spellings instead of 8.

dupblanklic dupno spudshare of file rows with each problem
November 2026How well does a simple decline curve forecast Canadian wells?

A backtest of a bounded Arps decline curve on about 1,900 Alberta, Saskatchewan and BC wells: how accurate a 12-month forecast is, how much history you need, and why the curve runs low.

40%60%80%fit: first 45 monthstest: next 12Median of 460 AB oil wells · ━ reported ━ forecast

Monthly snapshots

One page per month with the headline rates, changes and wells producing for Alberta, Saskatchewan and BC, back to January 2024. These were written in November 2026 from the files available then, so they are a retrospective catalogue, not archived releases.

2026 (9 months)
SeptemberAlberta oil averaged 2,631 thousand bbl/d (+6.6% on a year earlier)AugustAlberta oil averaged 2,677 thousand bbl/d (+6.8% on a year earlier)JulyAlberta oil averaged 2,644 thousand bbl/d (+5.0% on a year earlier)JuneAlberta oil averaged 2,538 thousand bbl/d (+6.8% on a year earlier)MayAlberta oil averaged 2,418 thousand bbl/d (+3.1% on a year earlier)AprilAlberta oil averaged 2,542 thousand bbl/d (+2.8% on a year earlier)MarchAlberta oil averaged 2,591 thousand bbl/d (+2.7% on a year earlier)FebruaryAlberta oil averaged 2,584 thousand bbl/d (+4.7% on a year earlier)JanuaryAlberta oil averaged 2,562 thousand bbl/d (+2.8% on a year earlier)
2025 (12 months)
DecemberAlberta oil averaged 2,541 thousand bbl/d (+1.7% on a year earlier)NovemberAlberta oil averaged 2,581 thousand bbl/d (+4.4% on a year earlier)OctoberAlberta oil averaged 2,521 thousand bbl/d (+2.8% on a year earlier)SeptemberAlberta oil averaged 2,468 thousand bbl/d (+11.3% on a year earlier)AugustAlberta oil averaged 2,507 thousand bbl/d (+9.3% on a year earlier)JulyAlberta oil averaged 2,519 thousand bbl/d (+7.7% on a year earlier)JuneAlberta oil averaged 2,378 thousand bbl/d (−0.8% on a year earlier)MayAlberta oil averaged 2,345 thousand bbl/d (−0.5% on a year earlier)AprilAlberta oil averaged 2,473 thousand bbl/d (+4.5% on a year earlier)MarchAlberta oil averaged 2,522 thousand bbl/d (+5.6% on a year earlier)FebruaryAlberta oil averaged 2,468 thousand bbl/d (+3.9% on a year earlier)JanuaryAlberta oil averaged 2,492 thousand bbl/d (+7.6% on a year earlier)
2024 (12 months)
DecemberAlberta oil averaged 2,500 thousand bbl/d (+3.9% on a year earlier)NovemberAlberta oil averaged 2,472 thousand bbl/d (+4.9% on a year earlier)OctoberAlberta oil averaged 2,453 thousand bbl/d (+6.4% on a year earlier)SeptemberAlberta oil averaged 2,218 thousand bbl/d (−2.6% on a year earlier)AugustAlberta oil averaged 2,293 thousand bbl/d (−1.1% on a year earlier)JulyAlberta oil averaged 2,340 thousand bbl/d (+2.7% on a year earlier)JuneAlberta oil averaged 2,397 thousand bbl/d (+8.0% on a year earlier)MayAlberta oil averaged 2,357 thousand bbl/d (+9.7% on a year earlier)AprilAlberta oil averaged 2,366 thousand bbl/d (+7.9% on a year earlier)MarchAlberta oil averaged 2,389 thousand bbl/d (+4.4% on a year earlier)FebruaryAlberta oil averaged 2,375 thousand bbl/d (+3.8% on a year earlier)JanuaryAlberta oil averaged 2,316 thousand bbl/d (+1.8% on a year earlier)

Release schedule

From here on, about every two weeks: a monthly snapshot once the regulators publish a new month (mid-month), with an analysis post in between.

Illustrative only, not for reserves reporting or investment decisions. See Methods for sources and rules.