Are new wells getting better? First-six-month rates by year
November 2026Illustrative, not for reserves or investment decisions
Drillers talk about better completions and longer laterals. If that is working, wells that start producing later should start stronger. We looked at the first six producing months of new wells in Alberta and Saskatchewan, grouped by the year they first produced.
What we did
- New wells: spud date in 2021 or later, and not already producing in January 2022, so older wells returning from a shut-in are left out.
- Measure: average daily rate over each well's first six producing months (oil in bbl/d, gas in Mcf/d). A well is "oil" if oil is a real part of its output, otherwise "gas". We report medians.
- Groups: by the calendar year of the first producing month. Groups with fewer than 30 wells are dropped.
1. Newer Alberta wells start stronger; Saskatchewan is mixed
| Group (median) | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 (first produced Jan to Mar) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alberta oil (bbl/d) | 105 (n 272) | 131 (n 427) | 155 (n 460) | 158 (n 368) | 93 (n 120) |
| Alberta gas (Mcf/d) | 297 (n 2,434) | 248 (n 2,619) | 276 (n 2,516) | 353 (n 2,649) | 425 (n 799) |
| Saskatchewan oil (bbl/d) | 60 (n 253) | 52 (n 242) | 56 (n 226) | 60 (n 226) | 59 (n 98) |
| Saskatchewan gas (Mcf/d) | 28 (n 902) | 33 (n 911) | 33 (n 782) | 38 (n 670) | 35 (n 227) |
Alberta gas wells that first produced in 2025 started at a median of 353 Mcf/d against 297 in 2022, a rise of 19%. Alberta oil wells went from 105 to 158 bbl/d (+50%). Saskatchewan oil sat in a narrow band (52 to 60 bbl/d), and Saskatchewan gas moved from 28 to 38 Mcf/d.
2. Horizontal wells dominate new Alberta wells
Among new Alberta wells, 1,551 oil wells and 10,692 gas wells are flagged horizontal in the infrastructure file, against only 96 and 325 that are not. The horizontal wells started at a median of 143 bbl/d (oil) and 323 Mcf/d (gas), against 37 bbl/d and 13 Mcf/d for the others. The rise from year to year is probably linked to what is being drilled, but this data cannot separate lateral length, completion size or location.
What this means in practice
- Do not forecast a 2025 Alberta well with a 2022 type curve; the median start is higher.
- For Saskatchewan oil the older type curves still look reasonable; Saskatchewan gas wells have started stronger in later years.
- Check horizontal versus vertical before comparing groups of wells.
Limits
- Medians only; we did not adjust for lateral length, completion size, fluid mix or location.
- The "oil" group in Alberta includes wells licensed for crude bitumen.
- First six months include any ramp-up and can be affected by early shut-ins.
- 2026 holds only wells that first produced in January to March, and groups under 30 wells are not shown.
- A well drilled in 2021 or later but producing before 2022 is excluded, which removes some of the earliest 2022 starts.
Reproduce it
Code: github.com/Jay-Kimani/TidyWells, posts/cache_matrix.py, posts/wells_study.py, posts/dq_study.py and posts/gen_posts2.py. Download the files yourself from Petrinex and the BC Energy Regulator; we do not host the data.
Illustrative only. Not for reserves reporting or investment decisions.
Contains information licensed from Petrinex public data (Alberta, Saskatchewan) and the BC Energy Regulator; Crown copyright of the provinces is acknowledged. Tidywells is not affiliated with any regulator.